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Repeat Order Probability

What the Repeat Order Probability report is and how you can make use out of it. What the Axes of the diagram tell you.

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Written by Admetrics
Updated over a month ago

The Repeat Order Probability analysis in Admetrics Data Studio reveals the actual purchasing behavior of your customer base. This report shows the percentage of customers who have made subsequent purchases, providing clear insights into your current customer loyalty patterns.

1. What This Metric Shows

This is an analysis that demonstrates the percentage of customers who have made each subsequent purchase. For example, the data might show that out of all customers who made a first purchase, 22.72% made a second purchase. Of those who made a fifth purchase, 54.88% went on to make a sixth order.

2. The Psychology of Purchase Patterns

The chart shows three distinct customer phases:

  • Discovery Phase (Orders 2-3): First encounters with your brand where customers are still evaluating your products and haven't developed any loyalty yet

  • Commitment Phase (Orders 4-6): Customers who have moved past initial trials and are showing consistent interest in your brand through repeat purchases

  • Loyalty Phase (Orders 7+): Your loyal customer base who have made your brand a regular part of their shopping routine

3. Reading the Visualization

  • Y-Axis: Shows the order number (2nd through 10th purchase)

  • X-Axis: Displays the probability percentage (0% to 100%)

  • Green Bars: Represent the probability of making each subsequent purchase

  • Hover Information: Provides detailed statistics including specific probability percentages and related metrics, such as Order volume, AOV, and Time Between Orders

4. Marketing Strategies

Transform these probabilities into action. For example:

Early Stage

  • Implement "Second Purchase Programs" with higher incentives

  • Create educational content focusing on product value and usage

  • Deploy social proof from loyal customers

Middle Stage

  • Launch milestone celebration rewards

  • Introduce exclusive product access

  • Develop premium customer service channels

Loyalty Stage

  • Create brand ambassador programs

  • Offer early access to new products

  • Implement loyalty tier benefits

The strategies above are just a starting point - let the Repeat Order Probability data guide you to discover patterns unique to your business. Analyze your specific customer behavior, experiment with different approaches, and develop innovative strategies that align with what your data reveals about your customers' buying journey.

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